Cottage Grove, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

963
FXUS63 KMPX 022044
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple flurries in western/southwestern Minnesota through this
evening. No accumulation expected. Additional light snow chances
Tuesday night and Friday morning are not expected to result in
accumulation.

- Gradual warm up this week with the warmest day on Thursday. A
  slight cool down through the weekend before continued above
  normal temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Radar imagery out of western Minnesota this afternoon looks much
more robust than it actually is thanks to some low level dry air
which has kept even the stronger radar echoes from producing much
beyond some light flurries. A few automated stations have reported
some light snow but none as of 2pm have reported lower than 6 mile
visibility, meaning the snow is incredibly light. This is expected
to continue as the echoes dive south to southeast for the rest of
today, with dry conditions returning overnight for the remainder of
the area. The next feature to look at is a line of cloud cover
slowly moving southwards currently stretching from roughly Fargo to
just south of Duluth, which is expected to slowly dissipate as it
collides with the dry mid level air over southern Minnesota. There
is some discrepancy within the high resolution guidance as to the
spread of the clouds overnight, with the HRRR/RAP showing overcast
skies by the early morning while others show clear skies, and the
main consequence of the cloud cover is how low temperatures drop
overnight. Right now our forecast would call for clouds to dissipate
as they move southwards, resulting in less than 50 percent cloud
cover which would bring slightly cooler temperatures, reflected in
overnight lows reaching the single digits below zero in central
Minnesota down to the single digits above zero in the far south,
with areas that see a bit more cloud cover reaching a few degrees
warmer.

Weak surface high pressure will slide across the area tomorrow
resulting in yet another cooler than normal day with highs in the
teens and overnight lows into Wednesday dropping near to below zero,
however a warm front looks to move in early Wednesday morning
resulting in another chance for some light flurries. Still not
expecting much in the way of accumulation as the forcing is
relatively weak, with the main consequence being warmer air flowing
into the region at the lower levels which will help temperatures
rise significantly into Thursday. Based on our expected 850mb
temperatures being 10-15C warmer than normal, if we manage to mix
some of the warmer temperatures down we could be looking at some low
to mid 40s in southwestern Minnesota, up to the mid to upper 30s in
the Twin Cities and central Minnesota, and some upper 20s in western
Wisconsin by Thursday afternoon. This is also due to a secondary
warm front stretching from a stronger surface low in Canada moving
through earlier in the day on Thursday, with this front expected to
be dry with little moisture to work with, although some isolated
flurries cannot be ruled out once again. Temperatures tumble down a
bit over the weekend as the weak cold front from the same system
will once again push some colder temperatures aloft, however weak
winds at the surface should be able to keep us near to above normal
through weekend before another weak warm front looks to elevate
temperatures again to start next week. The longer range ensembles
favor some warmer than normal temperatures continuing through the
middle of the month, however once we get into midweek next week
there is some significant spread with the mean temperatures near to
slightly above normal. Depending on how quickly we can erode our
relatively fresh powder on top of what was previously a crusted
snowpack, we could have a chance to make another run at some 40s
next week. For now, expect the milder temperatures with only minor
chances for additional precipitation through next week and any
larger systems delayed until the second half of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Upper level clouds are expected to move in ahead of a warm front
moving across the area today, with a very small chance of -SN or
flurries only for RWF as all of it passes to the southwest.
There is some conflicting model guidance concerning a line of
stratus that will be moving southwards across the region
beginning 06z in the north to 11z in the south, with a split
between widespread IFR cigs and FEW/SCT low level clouds. The
CAMs in general are bullish on IFR CIGS, however there is also
low level omega which doesn`t seem realistic given the location
of the expected front and subsidence/dry air aloft. Given this,
elected to go mainly FEW/SCT IFR levels clouds with a few sites
seeing brief IFR conditions, mainly on the northern end of the
area being AXN/STC. Winds remain relatively light with a
direction favoring 330-360, however light enough such that VRB
winds are most likely after 00z.

KMSP...The above mentioned model split is the main decision
point, whether or not to commit to IFR CIGS after 08z.
Confidence level is about 70-80% that we will not see a CIG, and
rather see FEW/SCT015 from the stratus dissipating as it arrives
thanks to dry air aloft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH